At the March meeting, the Fed kept the funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Yahoo Finance’s live coverage noted that the first 2026 SEP maintained a median forecast for one cut during the year, matching the December projection.
That forecast was a snapshot, not a promise. Mortgage rates had already begun to climb from the February low as inflation and geopolitical risk returned. A “one cut later” dots plot does not refinance a building or a house by itself.
For commercial borrowers, March was the month to stop waiting for 2025-style cuts and start structuring the facility you actually need — term, line, SBA, or CRE — at a payment that works if the cut never arrives.
Sources: Federal Reserve March 2026 FOMC; Yahoo Finance (March 19, 2026).