At its July 29 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee left the policy rate unchanged, a pause investors largely expected. U.S. Bank’s recap noted that core PCE inflation was still running at 3.3% in June — well above the Fed’s 2% target — even as the labor market stayed firm.

The newer data point is July CPI. Reuters reported on August 12 that the Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5% in June, while core CPI slowed to 2.5%. Traders added to bets that the Fed will hold again in September. A softer print also eased rate-hike anxiety in global markets later that week.

Households are not celebrating just yet. The New York Fed’s July Survey of Consumer Expectations, released August 7, showed one-year inflation expectations only a tenth lower at 3.6%, with expected home-price growth still at 3.2%.

What this means for homeowners

Mortgage rates do not move lockstep with the federal funds rate. They track longer-term Treasury yields and inflation expectations. HousingWire made the same point after earlier 2026 pauses: the mortgage outlook depends more on inflation and the 10-year yield than on whether the Fed hikes 25 basis points next month.

If you are planning a purchase or a refinance later this year, treat the current range as a planning band, not a promise of lower payments. A pre-approval conversation is still the cleanest way to know what payment you can actually carry.

What this means for business owners

Working capital, equipment, and commercial real estate pricing will stay sensitive to credit spreads and the shape of the yield curve. A hold is better than a surprise hike. It does not automatically reopen cheap, long-duration credit.

If cash flow is lumpy, a line of credit or short-term facility is usually a better match than stretching for a long-term loan on the hope that rates fall. If you are refinancing a commercial property, start the conversation before a 2026 or 2027 maturity is on top of you — CRE refinancing calendars remain heavy.

Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC; Reuters (Aug. 12, 2026); U.S. Bank (July 31, 2026); New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (Aug. 7, 2026); HousingWire.