After the late-2025 Fed cuts and the January MBS announcement, 30-year fixed rates drifted to their 2026 low in February. Forbes Advisor later put that low at 5.98%. Bankrate recorded a February dip to about 6.09% before rates moved back above 6.25% in March.
That low did not last. By spring, energy prices and the Middle East conflict were pushing inflation expectations — and mortgage spreads — the other way. Wells Fargo later argued that rates likely bottomed in the first quarter near 6.18% and would drift slightly higher from there.
The lesson
Rate windows close faster than people expect. Buyers who were “waiting for 5.5%” missed a perfectly usable 6% print. If a payment works at today’s rate and the house is the right house, locking is usually better than forecasting the next headline.
Sources: Forbes Advisor mortgage forecast; Bankrate (June 18, 2026 recap); Wells Fargo housing outlook as cited in U.S. News.