Fed minutes: cheaper MBS, but no refinance boom.

February 18, 2026 · Wellesley Insights

When the January minutes came out in February, the Fed’s markets desk put numbers on what borrowers were already feeling: spreads improved, but the refinance incentive was still not there for most households.

The minutes of the January 28 meeting, released February 18, said the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac portfolio announcement drew substantial market attention and was followed by a notable decline in MBS yields versus Treasuries.

The same paragraph is the one that mattered for households: the decline was “unlikely to result in a material increase in mortgage refinancing” because current mortgage rates were still well above the weighted average rate on loans already outstanding. Corporate bond, leveraged-loan, and CMBS yields also eased over the period, as did 30-year conforming mortgage rates and new auto-loan rates.

Household mortgage delinquencies remained near historic lows. Credit-card and auto delinquencies were still running above pre-pandemic levels — a reminder that “housing is fine” and “consumers are fine” are not the same sentence.

Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC minutes, January 28, 2026 (released Feb. 18, 2026).

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